Between Trapezes: Navigating AI Uncertainty with Ancient Wisdom
By Derek Neighbors on June 14, 2025
The trapeze artist releases their grip on the bar, suspended in mid-air for what feels like an eternity. In that moment between platforms, between the security of what was and the promise of what could be, everything depends on trust, timing, and something the ancient Greeks called phronesis, practical wisdom.
For leaders navigating the AI transformation sweeping through every industry, this moment isn’t theoretical. It’s Tuesday morning’s board meeting. It’s the decision about which systems to rebuild, which teams to restructure, which capabilities to bet the company on.
You’re between trapezes right now.
The Moment Between Trapezes
I’ve been watching leaders, brilliant, accomplished, successful leaders, freeze in this space. Not because they lack intelligence or experience, but because they’re trying to apply old frameworks to fundamentally new realities. They’re looking for the certainty that traditional strategic planning promised, the five-year roadmaps that made sense when change moved at a predictable pace.
But here’s what I’ve learned from studying both ancient wisdom and modern transformation: the moment between trapezes isn’t a problem to solve, it’s a condition to master.
The trapeze artist doesn’t eliminate the gap between bars. They develop the capacity to navigate it with grace, precision, and yes, practical wisdom.
Why Traditional Planning Fails in Transition
Most strategic planning assumes a stable platform. You analyze the current state, project future scenarios, create detailed implementation plans. This works beautifully when the fundamental rules of your industry remain constant.
But AI isn’t just changing the tools we use, it’s changing the nature of work itself. The competitive advantages that took decades to build can become obsolete in months. The skills that defined expertise are being augmented, replaced, or fundamentally transformed.
In this environment, detailed five-year plans aren’t just useless, they’re dangerous. They create the illusion of control while actually reducing your capacity to adapt.
The ancient Greeks understood something we’ve forgotten: uncertainty isn’t the enemy of good decision making, it’s the context in which practical wisdom develops.
The Ancient Art of Practical Wisdom
Twenty-five hundred years ago, Aristotle identified something he called phronesis, practical wisdom. Unlike theoretical knowledge (episteme) or technical skill (techne), phronesis was the ability to make good decisions in uncertain, complex, human situations.
It wasn’t about having all the information. It was about developing the judgment to act wisely with incomplete information.
The Greeks recognized that the most important decisions, how to live, how to lead, how to build something meaningful, couldn’t be reduced to formulas or algorithms. They required a different kind of intelligence: the ability to perceive what matters most in a specific situation and act accordingly.
The Three Elements of Phronesis
1. Situational Awareness (Nous) The ability to perceive what’s actually happening, not what you expect to be happening. In AI transformation, this means seeing the real capabilities and limitations of current technology, not the hype or the fear.
2. Deliberative Excellence (Bouleusis) The capacity to consider multiple perspectives and potential outcomes without getting paralyzed by analysis. It’s thinking through implications while maintaining the ability to act.
3. Practical Judgment (Krisis) The wisdom to choose the right action at the right time, even when you don’t have complete information. It’s the difference between being right in theory and being effective in reality.
For the modern leader facing AI uncertainty, phronesis isn’t ancient philosophy—it’s the most practical skill you can develop.
The Uncertainty Paradox
Here’s the paradox that trips up most leaders: the organizations that will thrive in AI transformation are those that get comfortable with not knowing.
This doesn’t mean being reckless or unprepared. It means building organizational capacity for ambiguity: systems, cultures, and capabilities that perform well under uncertain conditions.
I’ve seen companies spend months trying to predict exactly how AI will impact their industry, creating elaborate scenarios and detailed implementation timelines. Meanwhile, their competitors are running small experiments, learning fast, and adapting based on real feedback.
The difference isn’t intelligence or resources. It’s the willingness to act with incomplete information and adjust based on what you learn.
The Leader’s Role in Modeling Uncertainty
Your team is watching how you handle uncertainty. If you’re projecting false confidence or demanding impossible certainty from your planning process, you’re teaching them to hide their own uncertainty rather than navigate it skillfully.
But if you can model phronesis, thoughtful action in the face of ambiguity, you’re building organizational capacity for the kind of adaptive excellence that AI transformation requires.
This means:
- Acknowledging what you don’t know while maintaining confidence in your ability to figure it out
- Making decisions with the best available information while staying open to new data
- Creating systems for rapid learning and adjustment rather than trying to get everything right the first time
Frameworks for the Unknown
Practical wisdom isn’t mystical, it can be developed through practice and frameworks. Here are three approaches I’ve seen work for leaders navigating AI uncertainty:
The Phronesis Framework: Assess, Adapt, Act
Assess: What do we actually know right now?
- Current AI capabilities relevant to our business
- Our organizational capacity for change
- The real (not projected) impact on our customers and operations
- The competitive landscape as it exists today
Adapt: What capabilities do we need to build?
- Not just technical capabilities, but organizational ones
- The ability to experiment quickly and learn from failure
- Systems that can evolve as technology evolves
- Teams that can work effectively with AI augmentation
Act: What’s the smallest meaningful step we can take?
- Experiments that generate real learning
- Investments that build adaptive capacity
- Decisions that keep options open while moving forward
- Actions that align with our core values and long-term vision
The Capacity Question
Instead of asking “What will AI do to our industry?” ask “What are we building that won’t become obsolete?”
The answer isn’t specific technologies or processes, it’s capabilities:
- Learning velocity: How quickly can we absorb new information and adjust?
- Experimental culture: How comfortable are we with intelligent failure?
- Adaptive systems: How well do our processes handle change?
- Human-AI collaboration: How effectively can our people work with AI tools?
The Trust Imperative
Between trapezes, everything depends on trust, in your training, your timing, your team, and your ability to adapt if something goes wrong.
For leaders, this means building trust in your organization’s capacity to navigate uncertainty together. Not trust that you have all the answers, but trust that you can figure out the right answers as conditions change.
Between Trapezes: A Leadership Practice
Here’s a practical exercise I use with leaders facing major transitions:
The Trapeze Meditation
- Identify your current trapeze: What are you holding onto that you need to release?
- Visualize the next platform: What are you moving toward, even if you can’t see it clearly?
- Feel the space between: What does it feel like to be in transition?
- Trust your capacity: What skills, relationships, and resources do you have for the journey?
- Take the leap: What’s the smallest step you can take toward the next platform?
This isn’t about eliminating uncertainty, it’s about developing comfort with the space between platforms.
Building Team Resilience in Transition
Your team needs to develop their own capacity for phronesis. This means:
Creating safe spaces for uncertainty: Regular discussions about what you don’t know and how you’re learning Celebrating intelligent experiments: Rewarding good decision making process, not just good outcomes Developing collective wisdom: Using the diverse perspectives on your team to navigate complexity Building adaptive rituals: Regular practices for assessing, adapting, and acting together
The Next Platform
The organizations that will thrive in the AI era won’t be those that predicted the future most accurately. They’ll be those that developed the greatest capacity for navigating uncertainty with wisdom, courage, and practical intelligence.
They’ll be led by people who understand that the moment between trapezes isn’t a crisis to survive, it’s where excellence is forged.
The ancient Greeks had a word for this kind of excellence: arete. Not perfection, but the full realization of potential through the skillful navigation of challenge and uncertainty.
Your AI transformation isn’t just about technology. It’s about developing organizational arete, the capacity to pursue excellence even when you can’t see the next platform clearly.
The Practice of Practical Wisdom
Phronesis isn’t something you achieve once and then possess forever. It’s a practice, developed through repeated engagement with uncertainty and complexity.
Every decision you make in the face of AI uncertainty is an opportunity to develop practical wisdom. Every experiment, every adaptation, every moment of acknowledging what you don’t know while still moving forward, these are the repetitions that build the capacity for excellence in transition.
The trapeze artist doesn’t eliminate the gap between bars. They develop the grace, timing, and trust to navigate it beautifully.
You’re between trapezes right now. The question isn’t whether you’ll reach the next platform, it’s whether you’ll develop the practical wisdom to make the journey with excellence.
Final Thought
The next time you’re facing a decision about AI implementation, team restructuring, or strategic direction, remember: you’re not trying to eliminate uncertainty, you’re developing the capacity to navigate it with practical wisdom.
Ask yourself: What would phronesis look like in this situation? What’s the most thoughtful action I can take with the information I have? How can this decision build our organizational capacity for adaptive excellence?
The space between trapezes isn’t empty, it’s where leadership is truly tested and excellence is forged.
What trapeze are you ready to release? What platform are you moving toward? And what practical wisdom will you develop in the space between?
This post is part of an ongoing exploration of how ancient wisdom applies to modern leadership challenges. For more insights on building organizational excellence through uncertainty, explore MasteryLab.co or connect with me on LinkedIn.
